Dunning-Kruger Effect, an overview:

Dunning-Kruger Effect, an overview:

The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias in which people with low ability, knowledge, or expertise in a particular area overestimate their own competence. At the same time, highly skilled individuals may underestimate their relative competence, assuming tasks that are easy for them are also easy for others.

Origin:
Identified by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999.

Their research showed that people who scored in the lowest percentiles on tests of humor, logic, or grammar greatly overestimated their performance.

Key Features:
Lack of Self-Awareness: Incompetent individuals often lack the very skills needed to recognize their incompetence.

Overconfidence: They tend to be more confident than capable.

Underestimation by Experts: Skilled individuals may assume others are equally knowledgeable, leading to modesty or doubt.

Classic Graph (often seen in summaries):
A simple curve that looks like this:

X-axis: Actual knowledge/competence

Y-axis: Confidence

It typically shows:

A sharp peak in confidence early (called “Mount Stupid”) when someone knows very little.

A drop in confidence as people gain more knowledge (“Valley of Despair”).

A gradual increase in confidence as true expertise develops (“Slope of Enlightenment”).

Real-World Examples:
A person who just read a blog post on climate science acting as if they are an expert.

Novice investors giving bold financial advice.

A new employee thinking they understand a company better than senior staff.

How to Overcome It:
Encourage feedback and reflection.

Foster a culture of lifelong learning and humility.

Practice metacognition — thinking about your own thinking.

Shervan K Shahhian